The Policy Shift That Could Reshape Property Prices

When we talk about Australia’s housing crisis, interest rates and investors dominate the conversation—but the real drivers run deeper.

In this episode, we unpack how Australian housing policy—particularly zoning and planning reform—is shaping the housing supply crisis, and whether strategic planning reform can genuinely improve affordability without destabilising the market.

We explore the economics behind land scarcity, why middle suburbs have become effectively “locked up,” and how allowing three storey townhouses and gentle density could reshape housing supply. Brendan breaks down what broad upzoning actually means in practice, how Victoria and NSW are approaching reform differently, and whether these changes meaningfully shift feasibility for developers.

For investors, this raises the bigger question: if scarcity underpins capital growth, what happens when supply constraints are relaxed? Does planning reform erode returns—or simply create a more functional market?

If you care about Australian housing affordability, the housing supply crisis, or the long-term fundamentals of property investment, this episode cuts through the politics and gets to the economics.

Episode Highlights

03:28 — It’s Planning Bans, Not Approval Delays

05:58 — The Real Demand for Missing Middle Housing

09:01 — Melbourne’s Affordability Trade-Off Explained

13:30 — Development Costs and Feasibility Realities

15:31 — The Hidden Zoning Tax on Housing Supply

18:06 — Why Townhouses Beat High-Rise in Suburbs

21:36 — The Economics of Three-Storey Townhouses

24:38 — Land Size, Lot Layouts and Buyer Preferences

26:26 — Property Advice and Strategic Thinking

27:33 — Sydney vs Melbourne: A Zoning Divide

29:01 — NIMBY Politics and the Density Debate

34:02 — Can Builders Deliver More Townhouses?

38:15 — What Global Upzoning Success Looks Like

39:12 — Unlocking Australia’s Locked-Up Suburbs

44:04 — Stamp Duty and Why People Don’t Move

48:45 — The Big Property Lesson from This Debate

49:49 — Final Takeaways and Listener Questions

Links

1. Planning better cities - Grattan Institute
2. More homes, better cities: Letting more people live where they want

About the Guest

Brendan Coates is a leading housing and economic policy expert specialising in Australian housing policy and structural reform. His work focuses on planning reform, housing supply, taxation settings and the long-term drivers of housing affordability.

With a strong grounding in economic modelling and public policy, Brendan brings evidence-based analysis to the debate around zoning reform, strategic planning reform, and the feasibility of medium-density housing such as three storey townhouses. His research examines how planning systems shape land scarcity, market outcomes and intergenerational equity.

In this conversation, Brendan offers a measured and data-driven perspective on what it will actually take to address Australia’s housing supply crisis—and what that means for both homeowners and property investors.

Connect with Brendan

1. Brendan’s LinkedIn
2. Grattan Institute’s LinkedIn
3. Grattan Institute’s Website
4. Grattan Institute’s Facebook
5. Grattan Institute’s YouTube

Resources

1. Visit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
2. If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:
3. The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
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6. Looking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.au
7. Work with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.au

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