Shane Smith Has Questions Iran, Oil, and the Crisis Coming Next ft. Ian Bremmer | Shane Smith Has Questions
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Mar 19, 2026 
Ian Bremmer, political scientist and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. He frames Iran as a looming global crisis and explains why regime change was unrealistic. He warns of shocks from the Strait of Hormuz and rising energy and supply-chain risks. He maps asymmetric warfare, drone and cyber threats, and compares global hotspots to show fragile U.S. credibility.
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War Of Choice Fueled By Overconfidence
- The Trump administration chose a deliberate, large-scale strike strategy based on prior experiences and perceived opportunity.
- Bremmer says prior actions like Soleimani's assassination and Venezuela success helped build overconfidence for a bigger operation.
Iran Still Profits From Oil Sales
- Despite heavy strikes, Iran is still selling oil and in some cases making more revenue now than before the war.
- Tankers are reaching China, reducing global supply shock and limiting US leverage over Iranian revenue.
Avoid Costly Ground Operations In Iran
- Avoid escalating to full occupation or commando raids to remove Iran's nuclear stockpiles due to high US casualty risk.
- Bremmer warns taking Karg Island or commando operations could provoke destruction and spike oil prices.