Animal Spirits Podcast

This Won't End Well (EP. 464)

33 snips
May 13, 2026
A rapid market melt-up and why memory and semiconductor stocks are spiking. Shifts in market leadership from mega-caps to AI winners and South Korea’s surge. How AI is changing advisors, portfolio construction, and everyday services. Longevity and wealth transfer dynamics, plus surprising consumer shifts from GLP-1s to snacks and alcohol.
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INSIGHT

Earnings Growth Can Make A Rally Look Less Speculative

  • Strong earnings growth has compressed forward P/E even as prices rally, making parts of the market look earnings-supported rather than manic.
  • Examples: Micron trading under 10x 2026 estimates despite huge YTD and 1-year gains because memory is cyclical.
ADVICE

Don't Assume One Market Mood For All Investors

  • Recognize multiple investor pulses coexist: some pause while others double down, so don’t assume a single market mood.
  • Michael Batnick cites Schwab activity down but Citadel platform flows in the 98th percentile, showing mixed retail behavior.
ADVICE

Use Rules To Remove Emotion With Momentum Strategies

  • Use rules-based, momentum strategies to remove emotion and enforce discipline during rapid market moves.
  • Michael Batnick's Porterhouse momentum strategy goes to cash when no stocks meet criteria, avoiding blind full-time exposure.
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