It's Bloody Complicated - A Compass Podcast The Poll-tergeist: Our Fragmented Politics and Labour’s ‘Progressive Defectors’ | ep. 144
Mar 13, 2026
Steve Akehurst, director of Persuasion UK and specialist in polling and electoral battlegrounds, discusses Britain’s fragmentation away from a two-party system. He maps where Labour’s 2024 voters have gone and profiles the ‘progressive defectors’. Conversation covers the rise of the Greens, strategic missteps by Labour, electoral coordination challenges, and routes to rebuild a progressive majority.
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One Fifth Of Labour Vote Has Already Drifted Left
- Around 20% of Labour's 2024 vote has already shifted to other left parties, roughly double the loss to the right.
- Persuasion's 10,000‑person poll finds the Greens are the main recipient and the ceiling for leftward defection is much larger than to the right.
Labour Gambled On A Left Vote That Wasn't Guaranteed
- Labour's strategy of focusing on centre/right swing voters assumed left voters were a secure base and would vote tactically when needed.
- That assumption broke down because voter loyalties are more fluid and demographic shifts changed where left voters live.
Progressive Defectors Are Lower Middle Class Commuter Voters
- Labour-to-Green defectors are not inner‑city elites but lower‑middle class graduates in their 30s, spread across commuter-belt and blue wall seats.
- They cluster in transformed towns like Worthing, Altrincham and parts of Wales, driven by housing pressure and demographic churn.