What Bitcoin Did Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? | Checkmate
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Feb 11, 2026 
Checkmate, an on-chain and macro Bitcoin analyst known for supply and mean-reversion research, joins to unpack the $60k crash and whether it marked a market inflection. Short takes cover on on-chain signals, mean-reversion zones around $60–80k, ETF flows and capitulation metrics. He also discusses who sold, cycle timing, portfolio moves, and how bottoms form through multiple tests.
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Mean Reversion And The Bull's Last Stand
- Checkmate argues the 80K–95K zone was the "bull's last stand" and losing the true market mean at 80K changed investor psychology.
- Mean-reversion models show 60K sits in the bottom fifth, making it a deep-value zone.
Capitulation Matched 2022's Intensity
- Checkmate measured a $1.5B single-day capitulation similar to the 2022 bottom, indicating heavy near-term selling.
- SOPR hit -1 standard deviation, a rare capitulation signal seen only in major sells.
Buy The Bottom As A Process
- Do DCA heavily during bottoming processes instead of trying to time the exact bottom.
- Buy across the bottoming period and accept you won't hit the absolute low.