China Unscripted Iran's Collapse Would Be China's WORST Nightmare
Jan 27, 2026
Grant Newsham, former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer and analyst of East Asian and Middle Eastern security, breaks down how a collapse in Iran would ripple through China’s strategic world. He explores political and psychological costs to Beijing. He highlights economic and regional losses, China’s existing footholds, and the hard choices Beijing would face under U.S. pressure.
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China's Prestige At Stake
- If Iran falls, China's ability to prop up distant allies looks weak and its reputation takes a political hit.
- Grant Newsham argues this would be a psychological blow to the PRC's image of invincibility and influence.
Energy And Regional Influence Risk
- Losing Iran would reduce access to heavily discounted oil and remove a strategic platform in the Middle East.
- Newsham warns China could face higher oil costs and lose regional leverage if Tehran collapses.
Allied Regimes Facing Setbacks
- Recent setbacks in Venezuela, Iran, and possibly Cuba signal a pattern of allied regimes faltering where China invested.
- Newsham says these developments are striking political defeats for the PRC's foreign policy streak.