MetaLearn Podcast ML194: Raoul Pal on Russia-Ukraine, Investing in Uncertain Times & The Tokenisation of Culture
Mar 30, 2022
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Episode notes
Geopolitical Analysis and Trading
- Don't trade based on geopolitical news headlines, as they are often unreliable.
- Focus on general trends and probabilities instead.
Scenario Formulation Process
- Raoul Pal formulates scenarios by understanding each side's wants and avoiding imposing personal opinions.
- He uses game theory, historical context, and diverse opinions on Twitter to assess probable outcomes.
Macro Framework for Markets
- Start with the secular trend to know the direction of the market.
- Then look at the intermediate-term trend and its implications for price.