#22 - Mike O'Sullivan - The End of Globalisation: Debt Addiction, Development, Democracy & The Way Forward

Apr 19, 2024

In this insightful discussion, Mike O'Sullivan, author of 'The Levelling' and CEO of Harvest Innovation Advisory, shares his expertise on the decline of globalization and its repercussions on democracy and the economy. He critically assesses economic dependencies and the role of international institutions like the IMF in managing financial crises. The conversation touches on the importance of innovation, education, and the impact of technology on societal cohesion. O'Sullivan also highlights the need for new political structures to navigate the complexities of our changing world.

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INSIGHT

Consumers vs. Citizens in Democracy

Many young people behave as consumers, not citizens, focusing on individual benefits.
This diminishes concern for public goods like education and justice, weakening social cohesion.

INSIGHT

Debt and Economic Growth Risks

The current long economic expansions mask rising debt and wealth inequality.
Debt-to-GDP ratios near 100% warn of potential debt crises if not managed properly.

INSIGHT

Japan's Debt Ownership Risk

Japan's central bank owns the majority of government debt, enabling high debt levels temporarily.
This creates risks, as a loss of confidence can cause violent market repricing.

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We welcomed the author of the new book "The Levelling", Mike O'Sullivan, who's spent 20 years thinking and writing on macro economy and politics. He also served as the Chief Investment Officer at Credit Suisse and is the CEO of Harvest Innovation Advisory. We cover the end of globalisation, the future of democracy, economics, finance, geopolitics, and nation-building in the post-globalisation era.

In the episode, we cover a range of topics:

-Assessment of Globalisation: Critical examination of the concept of globalisation, probing its evolution, successes, and shortcomings, particularly in light of mounting debt, economic dependencies, and democratic deficits.

-Geopolitical Realities: The shifting dynamics of global power & democracy, from the dominance of the West to the rise of multipolarity

-Rethinking Economic Paradigms: Importance of R&D, education, and a conducive regulatory environment for fostering organic economic growth and escaping debt trap

-Challenges of Development: Role of international institutions such as the IMF, leadership credibility, and effectiveness in managing financial crises (examples from Greece & Argentina)

-Navigating Technological Complexity: The profound impact of technology on every aspect of society, from AI and blockchain to the fragmentation of media and its implications for democracy and social cohesion.

Join us for this action-packed episode as we explore the growing backlash against globalisation and the future of global relations and economic growth potential.

Follow our host Waheed Nabeel (@iwaheedo), for more updates on tech, civilizational growth, progress studies, and emerging markets.

Here are the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players, you should be able to click the timestamp for the episode.

(00:00) - Intro

(02:13) - Mike's background

(03:38) - How globalisation led to increased economic integration?

(06:54) - Why is the end of globalisation such a big issue?

(09:56) - What are the biggest challenges of the next 30 years?

(12:11) - Why is democracy under threat?

(14:02) - How can we revive democracies?

(17:18) - How can the effectiveness of governance in delivering tangible improvements to quality of life be assessed, particularly in contexts where traditional democratic norms may not be strictly followed, such as in Singapore or Rwanda?

(20:20) - Where did The UK went wrong?

(23:49) - How does Japan's economic performance challenge traditional notions of debt sustainability, especially in comparison to countries like the US and UK, and what implications does this have for the application of modern monetary theory (MMT) on a global scale?

(25:52) - Why are we obsessed with debt?

(28:31) - How do countries achieve organic economic growth?

(32:14) - What is the well-being economy?

(35:01) - How will this evolving digital landscape shape our societal values and political affiliations on a global scale?

(40:38) - How should nations think about development and economic growth?

(43:37) - Outro