Macro strategist Welsh: Market is on the edge of its next significant decline

Jim Welsh, portfolio manager at Smart Portfolios and editor of the MacroTides newsletter, says that the next downturn is being set up by recent moves that have bolstered confidence and lulled investors into feeling good. When the market turns, closer to mid-year, Welsh thinks the disappointment of those investors will make the market more vulnerable to 'a significant decline,' which he believes will take the Standard and Poor's 500 down to the 3,500 level, with a hard-landing economy putting 3,200 within the realm of possibilities. In The Big Interview, Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, foresees a 'growth recession,' likely to start in the second half of 2023 as consumers start to tighten up their spending. Rick says a recession, if it happens, will be mild. In The NAVigator segment, Steven Perry, vice president at XA Investments, discusses the benefits and risks associated with leverage in closed-end funds during a rising-rate environment, plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how he set up -- and changed over time -- the allowance practices used with his daughters.