The Arctic Chessboard: Why Greenland and Canada Are Critical to US Security Against the CCP | Alex Gray

Feb 14, 2026

Alex Gray, former National Security Council chief of staff and Arctic security expert, explains why Greenland and Canada are pivotal to U.S. strategy against China. He traces 150 years of interest, maps Arctic chokepoints and submarine routes, and warns of a Solomon Islands style Chinese playbook in Greenland. He also flags Canada’s defense gaps and urges proactive security compacts and planning.

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INSIGHT

Greenland's Unchanging Strategic Value

Greenland's strategic value is timeless because geography doesn't change and it controls critical sea lanes like the Greenland-Iceland gap.
Whoever exerts coercive influence over Greenland will shape Arctic and North Atlantic security relative to the United States.

ANECDOTE

2018 Airfield Purchase Blocked

In 2018 China tried to buy an airfield in Greenland and Denmark used its veto under existing rules to block the purchase.
This shows how Denmark's sovereignty currently prevents adversarial control of Greenlandic facilities.

INSIGHT

Independence Creates A Geopolitical Window

Greenland is on a clear path toward independence and could seek full sovereignty within a decade according to Greenland's own strategy.
Independence creates a strategic risk that China could apply its familiar influence playbook there unless the U.S. secures relations first.

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“People have misunderstood that [Greenland] is somehow a President Donald Trump issue, and it’s not,” says Alex Gray, who previously served as National Security Council chief of staff and deputy assistant to the president.

So why does Greenland matter? And why has it become such a massive issue?

In fact, Gray explained to me, multiple American presidents have tried to purchase or acquire Greenland over the last 160 years. Andrew Johnson was the first in 1867. Woodrow Wilson tried during the First World War. And Harry Truman tried right after World War II, Gray says.

In my deep-dive interview with Gray, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and co-founder of American Global Strategies, he lays out Greenland’s geostrategic importance to America’s national security and what it would mean if Greenland became dependent on China.

In 1952, the United States signed a treaty with Denmark, still in effect today, that provides America with extensive military access to Greenland. Gray’s overarching concern is what will happen when Greenland is likely to become independent in five or 10 years.

For many years, China has shown great interest in establishing dominance over the Arctic region and is regularly moving its submarines up to the North Pole.

Gray is convinced that after independence, Greenland is likely to fall prey to the Chinese Communist Party’s “well-worn playbook” to gain influence and eventually control the island. He calls it the “Solomon Islands scenario.”

“They start offering Belt and Road projects. They start buying dual-use facilities. They buy ports. They’re taking over airfields. Next thing you know, we’re hearing conversations about potentially having [China’s People’s Liberation Army] naval access to ports in the Solomons. … This is a well-worn Chinese playbook,” Gray says.

Beyond Greenland, we also dive into security threats related to America’s northern neighbor and the implications of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s overtures in Beijing.

Views expressed in this video are opinions of the host and the guest, and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.