The Dividend Cafe Monday - February 23, 2026
Feb 23, 2026
A snowed-in market recap highlighting a sharp selloff and bond-market reaction. A deep dive into massive AI capex plans and how Nvidia’s ties to OpenAI could drive chip demand. A Supreme Court ruling reshaping tariff authority and the complex legal workarounds under consideration. Analysis of possible large tariff refunds and their stimulative effects on growth and trade dynamics.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Tech And AI Valuation Drove The Drop
- Markets' selloff was driven more by AI and tech valuation rotation than by tariffs.
- David L. Bahnsen links the drop to subsector-specific pressures in AI/software and financials, not a broad macro shock.
Five Firms' AI CapEx Equals A Small Country GDP
- AI capital expenditure is enormous: five firms plan roughly $650 billion in AI CapEx for 2026 alone.
- Bahnsen highlights scale by comparing $650B to the GDP of small countries and combined military spending of major nations.
NVIDIA's $30B In OpenAI Becomes Chip Orders
- NVIDIA's planned investment in OpenAI was revised from $100 billion to $30 billion and will be returned as chip orders.
- Bahnsen notes NVIDIA will receive the $30B back from OpenAI in the form of chip orders, cycling spend into hardware demand.