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First Friday: Jobs Fell by 92,000. But the Economy Is Still Growing?

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Mar 6, 2026

Dr. Ben Zweig, economist and CEO of Revelio Labs who studies workforce intelligence. He unpacks the big February jobs surprise and why different reports paint conflicting pictures. He maps sector swings, especially healthcare and education, and explains the rise in hardship withdrawals and the low-hire, low-fire labor vibe. Short, sharp takes on labor data, mortgage and gas moves, and how to reconcile multiple signals.

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INSIGHT

Layoffs Are Uneven And AI Is A Noticeable Factor

Layoff announcements fell overall in February to 48,000 but tech, education, industrial manufacturing, and transportation saw increases.
AI was cited in about 4,680 job cuts, roughly 10% of February's layoffs.

ADVICE

Watch Treasuries For Mortgage Rate Moves

Expect mortgage rates to track 10-year Treasury yields and react to geopolitical shocks that raise inflation risk.
Plan home-buying timing with both bond-market moves and global events in mind, not just local housing demand.

INSIGHT

Geopolitics And Seasonality Pushed Gas Prices Up

Gas prices jumped ~26 cents per gallon in a week due to disruptions in Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, plus seasonal spring demand.
The strait normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supply, amplifying shocks.

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#695: The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, pushing unemployment to 4.4 percent.
That result contradicts a different report released two days earlier showing 63,000 jobs added, leaving economists trying to square the circle. Many agree that we're in a "low hire, low fire" jobs environment.
We walk through several major economic stories using a three-layer framework: the household economy, markets and policy, and long-term forces shaping the future.
First, the household layer. Hiring has become uneven across sectors. Health care and education previously drove much of the job growth, but layoffs in those areas now appear in the data.
Job openings have also fallen to 6.54 million, the lowest level since the pandemic began. Workers are switching jobs less often, and the pay bump for job-hopping has shrunk.
Mortgage rates recently crossed 6 percent, influenced in part by rising Treasury yields and concerns about inflation. Gas prices climbed about 26 cents per gallon in a week, partly due to tensions affecting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supply.
The episode also looks at household finances. Six percent of workers in Vanguard plans took hardship withdrawals from their 401(k)s in 2025, up from five percent the year before. That increase suggests some households are leaning on retirement savings to manage financial stress.
At the end of the episode, economist Dr. Ben Zweig, CEO of Revelio Labs, joins us to unpack the conflicting employment reports and explain why the labor market may look weaker than expected. He also discusses why health care hiring may be slowing and how economists interpret mixed signals across multiple labor data sources.

(0:00) February jobs shock
(1:02) Three-layer economy framework
(2:03) BLS job losses explained
(3:12) ADP vs BLS data gap
(4:30) Job openings decline
(5:39) Layoffs and AI cuts
(7:15) Mortgage rates near 6 percent
(8:26) Gas price spike
(10:02) Markets react to oil shock
(16:00) Record 401k withdrawals
(19:30) Asset owners vs nonowners gap
(21:22) Supreme Court tariff ruling
(23:31) AI costs collapse, usage surge
(27:03) Fed reactions to jobs report
(33:33) Economist Ben Zweig interview

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