Columbia Energy Exchange Iran Conflict Brief: What It Will Take to Open Up the Strait of Hormuz
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Mar 11, 2026 Mike Knights, research lead at Horizon Engage and Gulf security expert, weighs in on the Strait of Hormuz crisis. He explains how shipping is being blocked and how Iran uses commercial risk to its advantage. He assesses naval challenges, what it would take to escort tankers, coalition limits, and alternative routes like the Red Sea and pipelines.
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Iran Weaponizes Commercial Risk Aversion
- The IRGC has weaponized commercial risk aversion rather than imposing a classical naval blockade.
- Iran uses cheap drones and occasional attacks to make insurers and shippers avoid the narrowest S-curve through Hormuz, halting traffic without needing full-scale naval action.
US Navy Has Fewer Ships Facing Stronger Threats
- The modern US Navy faces a tougher task in Hormuz due to fewer ships and far more advanced Iranian anti-ship capabilities.
- The fleet has shrunk from ~268 surface vessels to ~111, while Iran can now fire accurate long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles from mountainous terrain.
Naval Demonstration Is Required Before Shipping Returns
- Shippers will only return once navies demonstrate repeated freedom of navigation transits and insurers regain confidence.
- The U.S. Navy must go first and show willingness to place ships in the strait before tankers or LNG carriers resume passages.