When We Are with Alex Steffen The Myth of the Starting Gun and the Flat Track Fallacy
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Mar 7, 2026 A critique of the belief in a single tipping point that will suddenly unlock orderly climate solutions. Discussion of why steady-state thinking and normalcy bias mislead when change is discontinuous. Exploration of how delay reshapes risks, raises costs, and makes old policies and plans inadequate. A warning that future action will be uneven, partial, and unlike past expectations.
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Discontinuity Breaks Normalcy Bias
- Discontinuity is replacing stationarity so past experience and normalcy bias are poor guides for climate futures.
- Alex Steffen points to thousand-year floods becoming common and Greenland melting as examples of unprecedented, non-linear change.
Delay Distorts Perception Of Seriousness
- People assume lack of large-scale action means the crisis isn't serious, confusing political delay for reality.
- Alex says predatory delay and civic sabotage by fossil interests create the illusion of inaction despite real severity.
Starter Gun Fantasy Misreads The Future
- Many expect a future 'orderly transition' where known clean solutions simply scale up once politics allows.
- Alex argues that assumption—waiting for a starter gun to run the same race later—misses accelerating, disruptive change.