
Thinkers & Ideas Making Sense of Chaos with Doyne Farmer
Apr 16, 2024
Doyne Farmer challenges traditional economic models, advocating for complex systems thinking to improve predictions. Topics include limitations of standard economics, benefits of agent-based modeling, applying alternative modeling in business, and how CEOs can embrace complexity thinking.
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Limits Of The Standard Economic Pillars
- Mainstream economics rests on utility, beliefs, and equilibrium assumptions that simplify decision-making.
- Those assumptions work in simple, transparent settings but break down in complex, interacting economies.
Emergence And Unexpected Dynamics
- Complex systems produce emergent phenomena where components differ qualitatively from system-level behavior.
- Simple deterministic rules can generate surprising chaotic outcomes that require simulation to reveal.
Why Equilibrium Models Understate Complexity
- Traditional equilibrium models assume too much foresight and often damp endogenous dynamics.
- Complexity economics uses simple cognitive rules and realistic agents to simulate systems with millions of actors.
