EMQs: Are betting markets more reliable than polling?

8 snips

Mar 9, 2026

A lively debate on whether betting markets beat polling at predicting election results. They explore how odds might be influenced and the limits of political betting. Personal reflections on whether political life was a career high lead to funny backstage stories. Practical ideas for boosting growth in a rural mayoral region and candid advice about living with a stammer.

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INSIGHT

Prediction Markets Can Beat Polls

Prediction markets can outperform polls by aggregating bettors' stakes into probabilities.
Ed and George note markets shifted on Gorton and Denton and correctly signalled the Greens ahead of polls in that by-election.

INSIGHT

Large Bets Can Skew Market Signals

Betting and prediction markets are manipulable because large wagers change odds and can create false markets.
George explains a strategy where placing big bets can move odds, letting someone 'clean up' by trading around that movement.

INSIGHT

Small Stakes Move Thin Political Markets

Political betting volumes are tiny compared with sports markets, so modest stakes can move prices and create misleading signals.
George warns that a £1,000 bet can materially change odds on a leadership market even though it's small relative to campaign scale.

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Fresh off the absolute victory for the Greens in Gorton and Denton, Ed Balls and George Osborne debate whether the betting markets - which accurately predicted the results - are reliable forecasters in elections in this week’s EMQs. George ponders if, unlike official polling, it might be possible to influence the odds in your favour?

Fellow ex-MP Gyles Brandreth asks the brutally honest question: did their careers peak when they were politicians? Despite all their success in podcasting and elsewhere, was being in government the best days of their lives? The pair debate the idea which ends up causing them to reminisce about Michael Gove’s dog and a chicken named Gordon.

Finally, Mayor of York and North Yorkshire David Skaith asks the best way a mayor can promote growth in their region, particularly one as rural as his. After offering David some useful ideas, the pair wander down a Wuthering Heights tangent and Ed gifts listeners with his slightly dubious Kate Bush impression. David also asks Ed for some personal advice on being a public figure with a stammer.

We love hearing from you, so please don’t forget to send all your EMQs to questions@politicalcurrency and make sure to include a voice note of your question.

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Credits:

Research: Sam Burton

Production: Caillin McDaid, Caitlin Hanrahan & Eve Jones

Video Editor: Avi Asher

Executive Producer: Ellie Clifford

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