On the Media Do Moderates Win More Elections?
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Nov 5, 2025 Elliott Morris, a journalist and statistician behind the newsletter Strength in Numbers, dives into the electoral impacts of moderation in politics. He discusses the recent New York City mayoral win by Zohran Mamdani, emphasizing how divided party support reflects the broader debate on moderation. Morris critiques traditional analyses, arguing factors like incumbency and district dynamics are more pivotal than ideological centrist positions. He also highlights how group identity now supersedes policy preferences, reshaping electoral strategies for both parties.
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Moderate Labels Mask Real Advantages
- Labeling candidates as moderate because of certain PAC support creates messy, biased groupings.
- Morris argues many apparent moderation benefits come from incumbency, fundraising, and district fit, not ideology.
Moderation Bonus Is Tiny
- The measurable moderation premium is about one to one-and-a-half percentage points.
- That margin is far smaller than factors like incumbency, fundraising, and candidate quality.
Partisan Sorting Shrinks Swing Value
- Voters have become more partisan and less likely to switch sides despite being moderate on issues.
- Morris finds the premium for ideological moderation has declined roughly 80% since 2000.
