The Rob Vinall Podcast RV Capital's 2025 Letter to Co-Investors
Mar 30, 2026
A fund manager explains the framework he uses to sell investments and why specific portfolio moves were made. He contrasts two oil companies and the calculations behind keeping one but selling the other. He reflects on a Swiss tragedy and the risks of heavy-handed regulation. He debates AI's impact on jobs and whether AI hype threatens software moats.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Sell When Better Cash Flow Alternatives Exist
- Sell only when an alternative investment looks more attractive based on prudent evaluation of future cash flows.
- When qualitative factors like leadership or moat durability weaken, sell rather than force-quantify the risk in a spreadsheet.
Holding Companies Lose Edge When Capital Allocation Changes
- Prosz's value stemmed chiefly from its Tencent stake, but changing capital allocation flipped the attractiveness versus owning Tencent directly.
- The shift from aggressive buybacks to active M&A increased opportunity cost of holding the holding company.
Fistfights With Regulators Triggered PDD Sale
- Rob sold PDD after reports of fistfights between employees and Chinese regulators, fearing prolonged regulatory fallout in China.
- He still admires PDD's model and would re-invest if regulatory risk subsides.