Halftime Report Navigating the Volatile Market 2/2/26
Feb 2, 2026
Brian Belsky, portfolio strategist focused on asset allocation and company fundamentals. Anastasia Amoroso, macro thinker on earnings, margins and AI adoption. Stephanie Link, equity strategist with sector and stock calls like Synopsys. Joe Terranova, ETF manager known for momentum-driven rebalances. They debate February volatility, commodity and dollar swings, earnings-led market shifts, AI spending and JOET portfolio moves.
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Episode notes
Volatility Likely To Stay Elevated
- February may be less volatile when the market starts above its 200-day moving average, but elevated volatility is likely to persist in 2026.
- Expect a transition from momentum/multiple-driven returns to an earnings-driven market, implying lower average returns.
Market Shifting To Earnings Leadership
- Markets are shifting from multiple expansion to earnings-driven performance in 2026, which historically delivers roughly half the return of momentum-driven markets.
- That shift doesn't mean negative returns, just more modest gains tied to corporate earnings.
Adjust Position Size For Elevated Volatility
- Size your positions for higher volatility and reduce exposure where episodic retail speculation is inflating moves.
- Understand commodity futures' higher intraday volatility before trading them.