Equity Mates Investing Podcast Signals for 2026: What Matters, What Doesn’t - Seb Mullins | Schroders
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Nov 20, 2025 Seb Mullins, Head of Multi-Asset and Fixed Income at Schroders Australia, dives into the macroeconomic landscape as we look towards 2026. He explores the potential for a hot US economy, the importance of US labor markets, and why Europe and emerging markets may be on the verge of a rebound. Mullins questions if the current AI boom is a bubble and highlights opportunities in gold as a hedge against inflation. With a focus on navigating volatility, he emphasizes the need for strategic asset allocation.
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Lower Population Growth Changes Job Math
- Lower immigration and aging participation mean the US now needs far fewer monthly jobs to keep unemployment steady.
- That structural change can mask weaker hiring prints without immediate spikes in unemployment.
Europe Could Reaccelerate
- Europe can outperform via fiscal stimulus and reallocation as investors deem the US expensive and peripheral EU markets offer cheap valuations.
- Defense-related spending in Germany acts effectively as broad fiscal stimulus for growth and infrastructure.
EM Benefits From Easier Conditions
- A weaker dollar and falling food inflation should allow many EM central banks to ease policy, supporting EM economies and markets.
- Emerging markets' recovery depends on local dynamics, not a single uniform rebound.
