Swamp Notes One year since ‘liberation day’
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Apr 3, 2026 
Claire Jones, U.S. economics editor at the Financial Times, explains the real effects of America’s tariff shock. She outlines why economists worried about the tariffs’ methodology and uncertainty. She discusses collected customs revenue, limited manufacturing gains, and how tariffs reshaped trade, markets, and policy debates.
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Uncertainty Drove Markets More Than Mechanics
- Economists and markets reacted strongly because the tariffs introduced unprecedented uncertainty and an unusual calculation method that economists disliked.
- Claire Jones notes the methodology diverged from past tariff policy and uncertainty drove volatile stock and bond moves.
Tariffs Helped The Budget But Not Manufacturing
- Tariffs raised meaningful customs revenue, giving a fiscal boost even though they didn't revive manufacturing as promised.
- Jones says the tariffs collected revenue over the year, but didn't create the large manufacturing job gains Trump claimed.
Fed Views Tariffs As A One Off Price Shock
- The Fed treated tariffs as a one-off shock that raised some goods' prices but didn't embed into broad inflation.
- Jones points to Fed officials viewing tariff effects as temporary while other shocks like oil and the Iran war now matter more.