1397 | Probability Is the Weak Link

In this episode, Carl revisits the classic risk equation—risk equals probability times consequence—and explains why probability is often the weak link. Drawing on stories from mountain climbing, avalanche education, and investing, he explores how our brains are poorly wired for estimating odds, often substituting confidence and vivid stories for statistical reality. Instead of obsessing over forecasts, Carl suggests shifting focus to consequences: If I’m wrong, what happens? From terrain choice in the backcountry to portfolio design in uncertain markets, he makes the case that humility, a margin of safety, and resilience in the face of uncertainty are far more reliable than precise probability predictions.

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