Columbia Energy Exchange The Iran Oil Shock: Will it Force the World to Re-think the Future of Energy?
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Apr 28, 2026 
Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy and Columbia professor of energy policy, geopolitics, and climate. He dissects the unprecedented 13–15 million bpd Iran supply shock. He explores how long flows might stay disrupted, trade-offs between energy autarky and interconnection, and what this means for electrification, resilience, and clean‑energy supply chains.
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Scale Of The 2026 Iran Oil Shock
- The current Iran conflict created the largest oil supply disruption in history, removing roughly 13–15 million barrels per day that would transit the Strait of Hormuz.
- That equals 10–15% of global oil supply, far exceeding the 1973 Arab embargo (≈7%) and 1990 Gulf War (≈6%), producing acute shortages and price spikes across Asia and emerging markets.
Opening The Strait Won't Fix Supply Overnight
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz won't immediately restore flows because production must be restarted and crews/insurers need confidence to send ships back into a risky area.
- Physical repair risk from escalation could extend outages to years if infrastructure is damaged, not just weeks for ramp-up.
Buy Resilience Not Isolation
- Diversify and harden energy systems rather than pursue pure autarky; mix electrification, renewables, nuclear and strategic stockpiles to reduce exposure.
- Invest in resilient infrastructure and redundancy like bypass pipelines, while accepting a security premium for insurance.