Marketplace All-in-One CPI, demystified
Mar 11, 2026
Justin Ho, a marketplace journalist who breaks down trade policy effects, and Nicole Servi, a Wells Fargo economist who decodes CPI and Fed implications. They discuss fresh CPI data quirks. They cover rising gas and grocery price shifts, how tariffs can unintentionally reduce inflation, and why CPI timing may miss fast-moving developments.
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February CPI Looks Good But Is Outdated
- February CPI looked encouraging with a 0.3% monthly gain and 2.4% year-over-year, the lowest in five years.
- Nicole Servi warns the report is dated because energy risk premia and the Iran conflict likely pushed gasoline and oil prices higher after the data window.
Fed Watches PCE Not CPI So Gaps Matter
- The Fed watches the PCE deflator not CPI, and current CPI-PCE gaps matter for policy signals about inflation momentum.
- Servi says energy shocks and lessons from the Ukraine shock make the Fed likelier to stay restrictive and hold rates longer.
Cold Winter And Data Centers Drove Natural Gas Spike
- Cold winter and rising data center demand pushed U.S. natural gas prices up about 10.9% year-over-year before the Iran war.
- Nova Sofo reports aid groups saw more utilities stress and demand for help even from moderate-income families.