The NPR Politics Podcast What to watch in the Texas Senate race
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Feb 10, 2026 Andrew Schneider, Houston Public Media senior reporter known for on-the-ground Texas political coverage. He breaks down the competitive Republican primary around Sen. John Cornyn, the influence of Trump and border security, Ken Paxton’s legal troubles and viability, the Democratic contenders Jasmine Crockett and James Tallarico, and what Texas’s primary could signal nationally.
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Trump Can Sway Voters — Or Stay Neutral
- A Trump endorsement would be influential: most likely GOP voters prefer a candidate backed by Trump.
- But analysts think Trump may avoid endorsing to let candidates compete and avoid political downside.
Account For Open Primaries
- Remember Texas primaries are open: voters can choose either party's primary on election day.
- Campaigns should monitor crossover and independent voting but expect mostly base voters to decide the outcome.
Runoff Rules Could Favor Paxton
- Texas requires 50%+1 to win, so a three-way GOP split could force a May runoff between the top two.
- Analysts say runoff dynamics could favor Paxton, who appeals to more hardline primary voters.