Lowy Institute Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on sovereignty, middle powers, and dealing with Trump
Mar 4, 2026
Mark Carney, former central banker turned Canadian prime minister, outlines why the rules-based order is in rupture and sovereignty now covers semiconductors, AI, payments and supply chains. He describes building collective strength through issue-based coalitions, Canada-Australia critical minerals and defence plans, and his candid, respectful approach to dealing with President Trump.
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Rupture Not Transition In The International Order
- Mark Carney argues the international order is in a rupture, not a transition, requiring middle powers to act now rather than wait for restoration.
- He links this rupture to great powers weaponizing economic integration (tariffs, financial infrastructure, supply chains) and to slow global institutions.
Build Sovereignty Beyond Borders
- Build sovereign capabilities across new vectors of sovereignty: semiconductors, AI, space comms, payment systems, clean energy, vaccines, and critical minerals.
- Do this at home and with trusted partners like Australia to avoid integration becoming subordination.
Form Issue Coalitions To Multiply Power
- Diversify partnerships through issue-based, ad hoc coalitions to multiply middle-power impact instead of negotiating bilaterally from weakness.
- Use variable geometry: different coalitions for defense, critical minerals, AI, and space to create redundancy and resilience.