Why Africa is Now a Key Front in the U.S.-China Rivalry

Feb 20, 2026

Andy Brown, Semafor managing editor focused on China business and geoeconomics, and Yinka Adegoke, Semafor Africa editor covering African politics and geopolitics. They unpack the rising U.S.-China rivalry in Africa. They discuss China's lead in Congo's cobalt and refining, U.S. critical-minerals plans, trade imbalances, and why processing capacity and governance shape who wins the race for Africa's resources.

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INSIGHT

Xi's Duty-Free Offer Won't Instantly Transform Trade

Xi announced duty-free access for 53 African countries effective May 1, 2026, but structural barriers will limit immediate export growth.
Phytosanitary rules, product standards, and low diversification mean duty-free access won’t automatically boost African exports to China.

ANECDOTE

Testifying On The Washington Accord

Jérôme testified before a House subcommittee about the Washington Accord and DRC-Rwanda issues, bringing minerals, geopolitics, and governance into the discussion.
He was invited because his work sits at the intersection of DRC politics, minerals, and regional geopolitics.

INSIGHT

Old Rhetoric Still Dominates Capitol Hill

Representative Chris Smith framed Chinese involvement in DRC mining as corrupt and strategically harmful, echoing long-standing Beltway rhetoric.
Eric and Jérôme argued that such rhetoric is often inaccurate and overlooks nuances like existing regulations and China’s mixed practices.

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Donald Trump has never thought very highly of Africa, famously referring to the continent as a place of "sh**hole countries." While there's no indication that sentiment has changed, he's recognized that African resources are essential if he wants the U.S. to decouple from Chinese dominanted critical mineral supply chains.

In February, the administration unveiled an ambitious new critical minerals sourcing initiative in which African countries, in particular, play an outsized role. But the Chinese have a 20+ year head start sourcing and refining these minerals and metals, so displacing them is not going to be easy.

For some perspective on this burgeoning U.S.-China rivalry, Eric & Géraud are joined by two of the top editors at the online news site Semafor. Yinka Adegoke is Semafor's Africa Editor, and Andy Browne is the outlet's Managing Editor, who will oversee Semafor's new China newsletter.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

The intensifying U.S.-China rivalry across Africa
China's expanding role in Congolese cobalt and critical minerals
Xi Jinping's duty-free access offer to 53 African countries
Mining versus refining and why processing capacity is the real bottleneck
U.S. efforts to counter China through critical minerals partnerships
Trade imbalances and the limits of African industrialization
Debates in Washington over corruption and China's business practices
Governance in the DRC and the deeper roots of regional instability

Semafor Africa: https://www.semafor.com/newsletters/africa
Semafor China: https://www.semafor.com/newsletters/china

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