Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Crime As Proxy For Disorder

9 snips
Mar 14, 2026
They question whether complaints about crime are actually complaints about disorder like litter, graffiti, and tent encampments. They compare messy city symptoms such as shoplifting, public nuisances, and boomboxs to historical trends. They weigh mixed data on homelessness and graffiti and explore why people think disorder is rising even when some crimes are down.
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INSIGHT

Crime Used As A Proxy For Disorder

  • People often conflate crime with disorder, using 'crime' as a safer way to complain about litter, graffiti, tent cities, and loud boomboxes.
  • Scott Alexander suggests this substitution helps avoid being labeled racist or 'Karen' and may explain exaggerated perceptions of rising crime.
INSIGHT

Litter Trends Have Fallen Since 1969

  • Long-term data show litter and roadside litter have declined substantially since 1969, and self-reported littering fell from 50% to 15%.
  • Scott treats these multiple sources together as convincing evidence of a downward secular trend in litter pre-2010s.
INSIGHT

Graffiti Data Are Patchy And Localized

  • Graffiti data are sparse and mixed: New York declined since 1970 but recent reports say LA and San Francisco have worsened.
  • Scott notes graffiti may mirror crime's decline until COVID then local rebounds complicate the picture.
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