The Interview

Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, head of the WTO: What is going on in the Middle East will have a significant impact on trade

Mar 27, 2026
Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General and former finance minister, offers expertise on global trade and multilateral reform. She discusses how the Middle East conflict raises uncertainty and will affect trade. They cover services as a shock absorber, shipping and fertilizer disruptions, rising protectionism, and the need to reform rules for digital and green trade.
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INSIGHT

Middle East Conflict Will Dent Goods Trade Growth

  • Global trade faces heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, which can shave about 0.5 percentage points off goods trade growth forecasts.
  • Services trade is more resilient, forecast near 4.8% growth and can act as a shock absorber for affected economies.
INSIGHT

Fertilizer Disruption Could Become A Food Crisis

  • Disruptions reach beyond oil to critical inputs like fertilizer, risking lower agricultural yields and higher food prices.
  • Nations such as Thailand, India and Brazil depend heavily on Gulf urea imports (70%, 40%, 35% respectively).
INSIGHT

WTO Rules Still Provide Trading Stability

  • Despite turbulence, core WTO rules continue to provide predictability and transparency that firms rely on for valuation and customs processes.
  • Most businesses keep trading under WTO rules, showing resilience amid protectionist moves.
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