The Property Couch (LIVE) RBA Mar 2026 | Inflation Fears Win in Close Call Vote
Mar 17, 2026
Evan Lucas, economist and market commentator, offers macro analysis on rates, inflation and global shocks. He and Ben unpack the RBA's narrow 25bp hike and board dynamics. They explore oil-driven inflation risks, electricity cost pressures, consumer expectations and stagflation concerns. Geopolitics, US and China data, and what to watch next in policy rounds out the conversation.
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Consumer Sentiment Vulnerable To Mid Survey Shocks
- Consumer sentiment is fragile and reactive to geopolitical shocks; late collection of survey caught Iran conflict effects.
- Ben explains Westpac Melbourne Institute reading rose to 91, but the final third of respondents (post‑conflict) averaged 84, implying a sharp fall next month.
Firms Turn Cautious As Cost Pressures Rebound
- Business confidence fell after the February hike while cost pressures and input costs rebounded, hinting at renewed price pressure.
- NAB's index dropped to −1, costs and labour inputs rose, and quarterly retail prices increased 1% versus 0.3% prior.
Supply Shocks Could Create Stagflation Risk
- Stagflation risk rises when supply shocks (oil) sustain inflation while growth slows, limiting central bank options.
- Evan Lucas contrasts 1970s oil‑driven stagflation where energy price spikes outpaced policy levers, warning of a similar risk if energy prices persist.
