The employment puzzle: can central banks maintain stability?

In this podcast Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer and Guy Ertz, Deputy Chief Investment Officer discuss recent trends in employment and unemployment, focusing on central banks roles.

1. Unemployment dropped sharply after the 2009 financial crisis but saw a brief rise during Covid-19, followed by mutlidecade lows in 2022.

2. Wage growth surged as unemployment hit critical low levels leading central banks to raise interest rates to control inflation.

3. Labor Force participation remains below pre-pandemic levels, with factors like illness and early retirement affecting employment.

4. Employment in services and construction sectors remains stable, with positive outlooks as rate cuts ease economic pressures.

5. Central banks are expected to lower rates, supporting job growth and potentially preventing a recession, leading to a soft economic landing.

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