The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch 20VC: Will SpaceX IPO at $1.5TRN | Will Cursor Kill Figma | Lightspeed Raises $9BN | OpenAI: $1BN from Disney, New CRO & #1 App in App Store | Oracle and Broadcom Hit: Now the Time to Buy?
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Dec 18, 2025 Lightspeed raises a staggering $9 billion, shifting dynamics for early-stage VCs. Disney's $1 billion investment in OpenAI propels discussions about IP rights in the AI space. The threat of AI is real, with firms at risk of being 'maimed' by competition. Cursor takes aim at Figma by blending design and coding tools. Plus, is a $1.5 trillion SpaceX IPO on the horizon? The team debates market appetites and the implications of such a massive valuation.
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Big AI Contracts Carry Hidden CapEx Risk
- Large AI customers can create capital-intensive obligations for suppliers.
- Initial revenue wins can mask heavy CapEx needs that later depress stocks.
Custom Chips Undercut NVIDIA’s Margin Moat
- Custom AI chips trade off margin and scale versus NVIDIA's branded dominance.
- Broadcom wins volume but shouldn't expect NVIDIA-like profitability.
Entry Valuation Predicts Long-Term Returns
- Buying public at high PE predicts low long-term returns; timing matters more over a decade.
- Entry valuation strongly correlates with 10-year returns, despite short-term moves.