Future Ready Leadership With Jacob Morgan Meta's Layoff Math, FedEx's Agent Army, & A Crazy AI Productivity Forecast
Mar 17, 2026
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Why Economists See Different AI Productivity Signals
- Goldman Sachs measures current earnings and finds no macro AI productivity yet while ARK Invest reads future input-cost declines.
- Both views can be true: Goldman reads today's balance sheet; Cathie Wood reads tomorrow's falling AI input costs and adoption curves.
Expect A Multiyear Lag Between AI Tools And Macro Productivity
- Historical tech adoption (electricity) shows large productivity gains often lag adoption by decades while firms reorganize around the technology.
- Paul David's research found productivity gains from electrification only appeared after factories redesigned layouts and management, implying AI may require organizational rewiring before macro gains appear.
Train People To Oversee AI Not Just Use It
- Do not assume issuing AI access equals transformation; train employees on AI oversight and judgment.
- Wendy Safstrom warns 60% of workers lack formal AI training while AI spend rises 44% and training budgets grow only 5%, risking missed productivity gains.