Wake Up to Money Cost of war
Mar 20, 2026
Adrian Hanrahan, MD of a West Midlands chemicals firm, on soaring energy bills and manufacturing strain. Victoria Scholar, investment chief, on markets, inflation and sector fallout. George Ligaris, chief economist, on UK macro, labour signals and central bank caution. Sarana Pavalescu, geopolitical risk partner, on Middle East tensions and oil market shocks. They discuss energy costs, market moves and policy risks.
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Reopen Hormuz Not Tighten Policy
- Monetary policy can't fix a supply shock; reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the effective solution.
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey emphasised geopolitics, not rates, as the core problem to resolve.
Bank Hold Reflects Caution From Past Mistakes
- The Bank of England held rates because of uncertainty and lessons from past shocks; its vote shifted from narrow to unanimous.
- George says if the Straits reopen soon, inflation outlook returns to being more benign.
Three Phase Path For Energy Shock To Hit Economy
- Central banks are in policy paralysis because it's hard to quantify the inflation impulse from the Middle East supply shock.
- Victoria Scholar outlines three phases: petrol rises, household energy, then second-round effects like food and fertiliser costs.