Saxo Market Call Markets melt up on Trump's seeming urgency to end war, but ...
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Apr 1, 2026 A late-March equity melt-up driven by calendar flows and short-covering is unpacked. Tension between political messaging to wind down war and rising US military actions is explored. Risks around the Strait of Hormuz, supply chain buffers, and oil shock timing are discussed. Market positioning, FX moves including yen intervention risk, and AI-driven cost cuts at big tech are highlighted.
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Quarter End Positioning Fueled The Rally
- Equity melt-up on quarter-end was driven largely by calendar and bearish positioning getting unwound.
- John Hardy points to heavy hedging and VIX falls causing reflexive cover, with NASDAQ100 down only ~4.1% since the Iran conflict began.
Words Versus Military Reality In De escalation
- Trump's public call to 'wind down' the Iran war seemed to spur risk-on sentiment, but on-the-ground military movements tell a different story.
- Hardy notes a third aircraft carrier is moving in, questioning how sincere and durable the de-escalation is.
Oil Buffers Were Drawn Down Leaving Lagged Shortages
- Oil markets had buffers at the conflict's outbreak but those buffers were drawn down, leaving pipeline disruptions weeks-long.
- Reistad Energy and Hardy warn that even with normalization, spot shortages could emerge in coming weeks.