NatSec Matters The Race to Control Global Tech: Craig Singleton
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Dec 31, 2025 Craig Singleton, a senior director and fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, dives deep into the tech rivalry between the U.S. and China. He highlights China's strategic use of rare earth magnets and its implications for American manufacturing. Singleton critiques the profit-sharing deal involving NVIDIA's H20 chips, warning of potential risks. He details China's 'five-lever playbook' for dominating critical technologies like polysilicon and LiDAR, emphasizing the hidden threats to U.S. national security, including in biotech.
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Export Controls Are Strategic Leverage
- The U.S. holds major levers via export controls and capital flow restrictions against China.
- Overly generous carve-outs risk weakening that leverage and export-control effectiveness.
H20 Chips Still Shift The Balance
- NVIDIA's H20 was designed to fit within U.S. export-control slices but still outperforms China's domestic chips.
- Every advanced chip shipped to China reduces capacity available to U.S. and allied developers.
Don't Monetize Export Controls
- Avoid turning export controls into tolls by monetizing access to China.
- Preserve clear policy lines rather than permitting access for a price like reported profit-sharing deals.