The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 377. Rates Steady, CRE in Motion: Multifamily Underwriting Pivot, Apartment Cash Flow Analysis, & Co‑Working Comeback
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Jan 30, 2026 A fast-paced rundown of Fed policy staying on hold and what that means for CRE underwriting. Deep dives into multifamily trends, disciplined JV metrics, and bridge-to-bridge lending powering CRE CLOs. A valuation case study using the Gordon Growth Model on a large San Francisco complex. Coverage of a co-working revival, major retail closures and bankruptcies, and notable multifamily transactions.
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Fed Pause Keeps Cost Of Carry High
- The Fed paused rate cuts because growth persists, labor cools, and inflation remains sticky.
- Stephen Bushbaum says this keeps cost-of-carry elevated and raises lending cushion demands.
Selective Multifamily Lending Persists
- Multifamily lending is selectively open with disciplined underwriting and higher debt-yield expectations.
- Markets diverge by supply: heavy-delivery MSAs feel different than those with easing supply and steady demand.
Underwrite Rent Growth Conservatively
- Underwrite conservative rent assumptions: 0% in year one and cap growth at ~3.5% annually.
- Use today's stabilized cap rate for exit assumptions to avoid overstating returns.