Learning Bayesian Statistics

#73 A Guide to Plotting Inferences & Uncertainties of Bayesian Models, with Jessica Hullman

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Dec 23, 2022
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INSIGHT

Data Choice Often Beats Visual Design

  • Visualization often isn't the most critical factor; the data you choose usually matters more.
  • Formalizing visualization objectives with theoretical frameworks reveals when a design can actually help decisions.
ADVICE

Run Pre‑Experiment Bayesian Power Checks

  • Use a rational Bayesian agent and scoring rules to compute the maximum possible benefit of a visualization before running experiments.
  • Run this pre-experiment analysis to detect when empirical differences are implausible or driven by small-sample artifacts.
INSIGHT

Use Bayesian Cognition To Quantify Bias

  • Bayesian models of cognition help define and measure biases precisely by comparing human updates to rational updating.
  • Calculating deviations from Bayesian updating yields interpretable metrics like perceived sample size.
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