Daniel Davis Deep Dive STRIKING IRAN: WHERE's THE PLAN? /fmr CIA Analyst Larry Johnson
Feb 24, 2026
Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst and national security commentator, brings blunt analysis. He breaks down why U.S. posture did not equal a viable strike plan on Iran. They cover air-refueling and air-defense challenges, risks of limited strikes sparking all-out war, problematic recruitment messaging, and how a U.S.-Iran fight would ripple into the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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F-35 Range And Refueling Make Deep Strikes Risky
- U.S. forward-deployed F-35s lack unrefueled range to strike deep Iranian targets from Prince Sultan or Muwaffaq Salti.
- Larry Johnson explains air-refuelers would be exposed to Chinese/Russian-supplied Iranian long-range radars and SAMs, making missions highly vulnerable.
Visible Posture Can Mask Lack Of Operational Plan
- Crisis Action Teams and visible deployments can signal intent but don't prove viable operational planning.
- Johnson argues the current posture looked like a show—planes forward without a workable plan to suppress Iranian integrated air defenses.
Chinese And Russian Air Defenses Alter Attack Calculus
- Chinese and Russian air-defense systems deployed to Iran change the calculus: radars detect hundreds of miles and S-300/S-400 systems threaten tankers and strike aircraft.
- Johnson says analysts informed leadership that these defenses make suppression and refueling operations highly risky.