Politics Now Why Pauline is the 'main character' in the SA election
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Mar 19, 2026 Casey Briggs, ABC Chief Elections Analyst and Adelaide commentator, breaks down why Pauline Hanson has become the main character in the South Australian contest. He talks polling surges for One Nation and whether that support will convert into seats. He outlines risks to the Liberals, preference tactics, and what booth-level results will reveal about shifting voter loyalties.
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One Nation Dominates The SA Campaign
- One Nation has become the dominant story in the South Australian election despite not contesting government.
- Casey Briggs notes Pauline Hanson gatecrashed the leaders' debate and polling has One Nation in the low 20s, making her the "main character" of the campaign.
Polling Surge May Not Translate To Seats
- Polls show Labor leading, One Nation surging into the low 20s and Liberals trailing, but polls may not equal votes.
- Briggs warns One Nation has historically underperformed polls, so Saturday's votes are the critical data point.
Liberals Risk Organizational Collapse In SA
- The Liberal Party faces an organisational crisis if it loses many metropolitan seats and remains weak in regions.
- Briggs highlights their recent leadership churn and marginal Adelaide seats could leave the Liberals with few MPs and little capacity to rebuild.