The global economy delivers summer gains

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the northern summer is delivering positive economic vibes.

But first up today, the expected rise in dairy prices at today's full dairy auction actually came in slightly better than expected. In USD prices were up +5.5% with the key WMP price rising +7.2% and SMP up +4.0%. Volumes sold were elevated. But in NZD the gains were not as strong, up +2.3% as the Kiwi dollar has been strengthening lately.. Today's result could keep that going. China and other north Asian buyers were prominent bidders, making this the biggest rise since March 2021. But having said that, overall prices are still only back to June 2024 levels so really it is only a short-term recovery.

In the US, retail sales at physical stores were up +4.9% last week from the same week a year ago, reinforcing the rise in retail confidence.

In Canada, CPI inflation fell to 2.5% and a three year low. Actually there is no surprise here because that was what their central bank predicted for H2-2024 when they trimmed rates at the end of last month.

Taiwanese export orders rose a very healthy +4.8% in July from a year ago, up from a +3.1% increase in the previous month and exceeding market forecasts of a +2.6% rise. The increase was driven by continued strong demand for AI chips but elsewhere demand was also quite broad. There has been a good turnaround in 2024 because a year ago these export orders were retreating.

China held its Loan Prime Rates unchanged in August, as expected, after the cuts in July. The 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) is still at 3.45% while the 5-year rate was retained at 3.85%. Both rates are at record lows following unexpected rate moves down in July.

And China has approved a record increase to their nuclear power plant expansion, signing off on eleven new facilities to be built. Each one costs NZ$4.5 bln. This adds to the 55 nuclear power plants already active, not including the ten approved in 2023 and not yet commissioned. They see this as a central element of their drive for "clean and stable energy sources".

Turkey held its official interest rate at 50% in their overnight review. You may recall a year ago they had been battling ~70% inflation using an odd Erdogan-inspired approach. But that clearly wasn't working so a more conventional policy was adopted raising their policy rate from 6.5%. It is now bringing results with inflation easing from 75% in May to 62% in July in a notable drop.

German producer prices are still deflating, although 'only' at -0.8% from a year ago, half the July rate of decline. Lower energy costs are the key driver here so actually they will like this result.

Sweden cut its official interest rate by -25 bps to 3.50%, and signaled two or three more similar cuts this year are likely should inflation develop in line with the central bank’s outlook. It was the second rate cut of the cycle, easing further from the 4% interest rate first reached in September 2023.

The RBA released the minutes of its August 6 meeting (what takes them so long?) and those warned of upside risks to inflation and therefore monetary policy. The risk of inflation not returning to target within a reasonable timeframe had increased, those minutes showed. The situation came amid the slow pace of disinflation, signs that the gap between aggregate demand and supply was larger than previously anticipated, and the upward revision to the forecast for final demand. Markets didn't react immediately to the 'warning'.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.83% and down -4 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$9 from yesterday at US$2511/oz.

Oil prices are down -50 USc at just on US$73/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$77/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today up almost another +½c from yesterday at 61.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +½c too at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 55.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.3 and up +30 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$58,833 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.3%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.