The Grumpy Strategists The Gulf collective defence exercise: a war no one admits to fighting
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Apr 1, 2026 Dr Marcus Hellyer, defence analyst and Head of Research, dials in with sharp commentary. They unpack whether the Gulf conflict counts as a war, Australia's Wedgetail role and personnel risks, Iranian proxy tactics vs US defenses, escalation paths including symbolic strikes, and how bipartisan politics and procurement woes leave Australia ill-prepared.
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A War Nobody Will Name
- Many states publicly insist they are not at war while actively conducting offensive and defensive operations in the Gulf.
- Michael Shoebridge and Dr Marcus Hellyer argue Australia's Wedgetail is operationally integrated into US command and control supporting collective self-defence despite political disclaimers.
Defences Mismatched To Iranian Tactics
- Defensive systems like THAAD can be bypassed by asymmetric Iranian tactics such as drones and small missiles.
- Marcus Hellyer warns Iran will exploit mismatches between threat and defensive design, undermining assumed protection.
Escalation Risk Across Multiple Levels
- Horizontal and vertical escalation are both happening: regional actors widen the fight while major powers consider deeper responses.
- Hellyer flags risk that escalation could push Israel toward extreme measures if conventional strikes fail to stop Iranian attacks.