TRIGGERnometry Our Thoughts On The Iran War
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Mar 31, 2026 A tense conversation on the Iran war spirals into oil shocks, Hormuz pressure, and the risk of global recession. There is also a sharp look at clashing interests between America, Israel, and Gulf states. Then it turns to Britain, where rising energy costs, political instability, and culture war tensions could fuel deeper polarization.
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Hormuz as a Toll Booth Hurts Europe Most
- Konstantin Kisin says Iran did not fully close Hormuz but turned it into a selective toll booth, preserving leverage while disrupting markets.
- He argues that hurts Europe most, helps Russia via higher oil prices, and does little to stop China’s access to energy.
Energy Shock Could Trigger a Global Recession
- Konstantin Kisin says energy shocks reliably trigger recessions, so sustained oil around 100 dollars a barrel could tip the world into downturn.
- He ties Hormuz disruption to shortages in LNG, diesel, and fertilizer, including reports Australia cannot source enough fertilizer for planting.
Australian Farmers Were Preparing for Diesel Theft
- Konstantin Kisin recounts an Australian farmer warning that fertilizer and diesel shortages were becoming physically binding, not merely expensive.
- The farmer said he was buying more guns because he feared people might steal stored diesel if shortages worsened.