HousingWire Daily Mortgage rates fell on Iran war news. What's next?
8 snips
Mar 24, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst known for data-driven mortgage and housing market analysis. He breaks down how Iran war headlines moved mortgage rates and bond yields. He highlights timing pivots in models and why housing demand stayed surprisingly strong despite rate volatility. He also explores inventory trends and the rate thresholds that could slow sales.
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Weekend Headlines Triggered Immediate Market Swings
- Logan recounts a weekend of rapid headlines where Trump's ultimatum and Iran's reply caused immediate market swings.
- He describes oil and 10-year moves tied to a Trump threat to bomb power plants and Iran's blunt counterstatements.
Geopolitics Quickly Rewrites Rate Expectations
- Geopolitical rhetoric rapidly shifts oil and Treasury yields, directly moving mortgage-rate expectations.
- Logan Mohtashami shows how weekend threats and Iran responses sent oil down then up, flipping the 10-year yield and rate-cut pricing within days.
Two Year Yield Can Flip Fed Expectations Overnight
- Short-term yield moves can entirely change the market's expected Fed path within days.
- Logan notes the two-year went from pricing two cuts to a possible hike, illustrating rapid repricing risk for mortgage markets.