Perpetual Chess Podcast EP 476-Vlad Ghita: Is the Rating System Still Broken? A Data-Driven Investigation
Mar 31, 2026
Vlad Ghita, a Romania-based arbiter, instructor and physics-trained data researcher, investigates flaws in global chess ratings. He examines FIDE reforms, the participation paradox, country-level underrating, age-related rating patterns, and whether US ratings outperform FIDE. He also outlines proposed fixes and practical advice for improving and protecting your rating.
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How Deflation Vortex Forms
- Rating deflation often arises when large pockets of juniors with high K-factors play primarily among themselves, creating a deflation vortex.
- Vlad shows K40 vs K20 friction inflates mature pools but traps isolated federations like some Asian countries in steady underrating.
Age Shapes Rating Trajectories
- Age cohorts show distinct rating trends: juniors gain with games, primes still gain, but players 35+ tend to decline with activity.
- Vlad's four-way segmentation reveals adults 50+ lose significantly as they play more, causing perceived stagnation.
Why USCF Performs Better
- USCF appears more proactive than FIDE by tuning parameters and applying floors and bonuses, which helps control deflation.
- Vlad credits Mark Glickman's active adjustments and USCF floors for better accuracy versus FIDE's slower interventions.
