Bulwark Takes Why Iran’s Regime Isn’t Falling (w/ Tim Mak)
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Mar 13, 2026 Tim Mak, investigative war reporter who founded Iran War Dispatches, shares on-the-ground reporting from Iran and Ukraine. He explores why Iran’s regime has held up, the ecological fallout and refugee patterns, risks of broader regional strikes and ground intervention, and how oil prices and depleted air defenses shape U.S. strategy and global stability.
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Drought As The Root Cause Of Iranian Upheaval
- Iran's drought and resulting economic pain are a core driver of recent unrest, not just protests or external strikes.
- Mak describes ecological damage, black rain after oil depot attacks, and talk of moving the capital due to water scarcity.
Why Armenias Iranian Exiles Are Fewer Than Expected
- Fewer Iranians fled to Armenia than expected because Iran's size lets people relocate internally away from strikes.
- Mak reports mountainous northern regions provide safety and reduce immediate external refugee flows into Armenia.
Why Iran's Regime Looks Resilient
- The Iranian regime appears durable because its decentralized mosaic-defense and asymmetric warfare doctrine has passed recent stress tests.
- Tim Mak notes IRGC strength, 200,000 armed personnel, and executions after protests removed many potential internal challengers.