At Any Rate Global FX: RBA, JP elections, euro/APAC rotation, dovish BoE, US data
12 snips
Feb 6, 2026 Ben Jarman, an FX strategist focused on APAC and commodity-linked currencies, walks through the RBA’s hawkish pivot and why AUD/NZD dynamics shifted. He discusses euro versus APAC FX rotation and scenarios around Japan’s elections. Conversations also cover the dovish BoE surprise and recent mixed US data that could sway dollar direction.
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Pro-Cyclical Backdrop Favors Growth Currencies
- Global macro signals remain pro-cyclical and favor growth-sensitive currencies over the dollar.
- Meera Chandan says consolidation may occur but the broader bearish dollar thesis is intact.
RBA Pivot Turned Carry On For AUD
- The RBA hike crystallized positive rate spreads to the US for the first time since 2018, driving AUD strength.
- Ben Jarman expects further AUD gains and sees mid-year AUD/USD toward the lower 0.70s on carry and commodity support.
NZD Faces Short Pause After Unemployment Bump
- Kiwi's strong data streak was interrupted by a small unemployment rise, likely pausing rate repricing.
- Ben Jarman still sees upside for NZD but expects consolidation ahead of the RBNZ's next moves.