HousingWire Daily Unemployment, consumer sentiment and mortgage rates
Mar 13, 2026
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst known for mortgage and bond market insight. He discusses how rising oil and Iran tensions tug on yields and mortgage rates. He explains why higher unemployment can actually lower mortgage rates and why jobless claims may signal Fed moves. He also contrasts consumer sentiment with real purchase activity and what rate levels mean for housing demand.
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Tug Of War Driving The 10-Year Yield
- The 10-year yield is in a tug-of-war between rising oil-driven inflation fears and weakening labor data.
- Logan Mohtashami explains yields rose with escalating Iran conflict and oil but could reverse if the economy can't absorb higher energy costs.
Escalation Is Fueling Persistent Oil Risk
- The Iran escalation can sustain higher oil and yields because supply disruptions are real and not fixed by headlines.
- Mohtashami notes strategic reserves and jawboning are short-term fixes while ships and drone attacks create persistent supply risk.
Lock Rates During Market Dips
- Lock rates opportunistically during volatility because lenders saw heavy lock volume when rates dipped in recent weeks.
- Logan points out smart loan officers locked significant purchase volume between ~6.20% and 6.35% amid the chaos.