141: Predicting the Future

More at http://philosophytalk.org/shows/predicting-future. People who predict the future well are sometimes said to be psychic. But we all make predictions about the future, with more or less success. We confidently predict the sun will rise tomorrow, that ice will be cold, etc. But maybe we're not quite as good at predicting the future as we think. Is the stock market predictable? The weather? Political upheavals? Or is life just too random to make good predictions? John and Ken predict that Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," will join them to consider the extent to which we can forecast the future.