One Rental At A Time Under Water Homes Explode Higher in Latest Report
Mar 5, 2026
Lance Lambert, housing market analyst and CEO of ResiClub, who studies regional housing and mortgage data. He walks through a report showing many markets with high shares of underwater homes. He compares today’s underwater rates to 2009 and explains why overall shares remain low. He highlights regional hotspots, differences in mortgage vintages, and what to watch this spring.
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Underwater Mortgages Are Up But Far From 2009
- National share of underwater mortgages rose from 1.3% to 2.1% year‑over‑year, still far below the 23% peak in 2009.
- Aggregated existing home prices remain near all‑time highs and amortization from ultra‑low rates has built faster equity buffers for many owners.
Nevada Hit Two Thirds Underwater In 2009
- In 2009 Nevada peaked near two‑thirds of mortgages underwater, illustrating how severe past cycles became.
- Lance notes Nevada reached close to 65% underwater, far above today's national levels.
Low Rates Created Faster Equity Build Up
- Amortization at ultra‑low mortgage rates meant borrowers paid down principal faster, creating larger equity cushions.
- Mortgages taken at ~3% shifted payments toward principal early, reducing vulnerability to price drops versus historically higher‑rate vintages.